By Rich M

The last matchday  has arrived, and much is still up for grabs on Saturday, so let’s start with the league title. Dortmund are at the top of the table going into Saturday’s matches, and Dortmund can win the title if they win at home against Mainz and Bayern fail to win at Köln. Bayern, in second place and 2 points behind Dortmund, can only become league champions if they win and Dortmund fail to win against Mainz. In the UEFA Champions League, Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig are already guaranteed places in next season’s Champions League group stage, which leaves a contest between Union Berlin and Freiburg to qualify in each case for their first-ever Champions League. Union can qualify if they better Freiburg’s away result at Frankfurt, or if they equal Freiburg’s result while maintaining a superior goal differential. Conversely, Freiburg will qualify if they better Union’s result at home to Bremen, or if they equal Union’s result in a way that results in a 4-goal swing in their favor. One spot remains open in the Europa League group stage, and that can be claimed by either Leverkusen, Wolfsburg, or Frankfurt. The spot goes to Leverkusen if they win at Bochum, or if they draw and Wolfsburg fail to beat Hertha, or if Wolfsburg lose to Hertha and Frankfurt fail to beat Freiburg. The spot goes to Wolfsburg if they win and Leverkusen fail to beat Bochum, if they draw and Leverkusen lose to Bochum by at least 2 goals, or if they draw by scoring 1 more goal than Leverkusen and Leverkusen lose by a 1-goal margin. The spot goes to Frankfurt if they win and Leverkusen lose at Bochum resulting in a 6-goal swing and Wolfsburg lose to Hertha, or if they win and Leverkusen lose at Bochum and Wolfsburg draw against Hertha with Frankfurt turning the goal differential in their favor. 7th place in the Bundesliga could also provide a spot in the Europa League conference play-offs should Leipzig win the DFB Pokal. The only teams who can still finish in 7th are Leverkusen, Wolfsburg, and Frankfurt, and Frankfurt will finish seventh at home if they win and Wolfsburg lose to Hertha or if they win by at least 5 goals to ensure their goal differential is better than Wolfsburg’s in case Wolfsburg draw with Hertha. At the bottom of the table, Hertha have already been relegated, and 5 teams are still in danger of joining Hertha: Hoffenheim, Augsburg, Stuttgart, Bochum, and Schalke. Hoffenheim will be guaranteed safety if they get at least 1 point or if they lose and Bochum fail to make up 26 goals on them. Augsburg will be safe if they win, or if they draw and Bochum fail to achieve a 16-goal swing at home to Leverkusen. Stuttgart will be safe if they win, or if Bochum and Schalke both lose. Bochum will be safe if they win and Stuttgart fail to beat Hoffenheim or Augsburg lose to Gladbach, or if they draw and Stuttgart lose to Hoffenheim and Schalke fail to beat Leipzig. Finally, Schalke will be safe if they win and both Stuttgart and Bochum fail to win, or if they draw and Bochum lose and Stuttgart lose by a 22 or 23-point margin.

By Rich M.

Freiburg’s hopes of a top-4 finish were renewed on Friday with a 2:0 win over visitors VfL Wolfsburg. Both Nils Petersen and Christian Günter scored just moments after coming off the bench, and Günter’s goal was his first of the season. The loss also damaged Wolfsburg’s hopes of European competition, leaving the club tied on points with Leverkusen, who will host nearby Gladbach on Sunday. The big questions dominating competition this weekend are those involving the league championship and relegation, so let’s take a look at some of the possibilities. Bayern have the possibility of securing the championship this weekend, but only if they beat RB Leipzig on Saturday and Borussia Dortmund lose to Augsburg on Sunday. Should Bayern win and Dortmund merely draw, Bayern will also almost certainly become champions, as Dortmund would otherwise need to win on Matchday 34, have Bayern lose on the same day, and have both matches end in such a way to create a 20-goal swing in the goal differential. Both clubs are already guaranteed a top-4 finish and spots in the next season’s Champions League group stage. Leipzig can also secure a spot in the top 4 this weekend if they win at Bayern. The remaining clubs competing for spots in the top 4 are Union Berlin and Freiburg, but that will not be decided until the final matchday. As things stand, the team that finishes fifth in the league will qualify for the Europa League group stage, with sixth place earning a spot in the Europa Conference League play-offs. Leipzig, Union Berlin, and Freiburg are all certain to finish no lower than fifth, but no club will be able to secure sixth place this weekend. Seventh place could also provide a spot in the Europa Conference League play-offs, should a team that has already qualified for Europe win the DFB Pokal. With Leipzig and Frankfurt contesting the Pokal final, that is a possible scenario, and Wolfsburg, Leverkusen, and Frankfurt are all in contention for seventh place. At the bottom of the table, 4 clubs each have a chance to secure safety this weekend: Bremen, Augsburg, Hoffenheim, and Bochum. Two clubs could be relegated this weekend: Stuttgart if they lose to Mainz, Schalke and Bochum win, and Hoffenheim don’t lose; and Hertha if they fail to defeat Bochum, if Bochum get at least a draw and Stuttgart or Schalke win, or if Stuttgart and Schalke both win. One other thing we do know is this: SV Darmstadt 98 will be in the 1. Bundesliga next season, having secured promotion on Friday, thanks to a 1:0 home win over 1. FC Magdeburg.

By Rich M

Hertha Berlin edged closer to relegation on Friday following a 5:2 loss to hosts 1. FC Köln. Among Köln’s goals were a brace from defender Timo Hübers, who found the net in the 39th and 69th minutes, along with goals from Davie Selke, Ellyes Skhiri, and Denis Huseinbasic. Hertha’s goals were scored by Lucas Tousart and Stevan Jovetic. Köln have scored at least 3 goals in all 6 of their home wins this season, while Hertha have conceded 66 goals, at an average of more than 2 per game, giving them the worst away record in the league. Berlin’s other club in the top flight, Union Berlin, will host Freiburg, in what is sure to be a tense match in the season’s final weeks. The clubs are tied on points in the table, with 56 apiece, and are both chasing maiden qualifications for the UEFA Champions League. Freiburg have, perhaps, a slight edge in the qualification race, as Union Berlin will have to visit Bayern on Matchday 33. Freiburg also won the reverse fixture this season, on Matchday 15, with a resounding 4:1 score. A Union victory, though, would give the capital club their highest-ever points tally in a Bundesliga season. Another competitive match on Saturday is that between hosts Eintracht Frankfurt and nearby visitors 1. FSV Mainz 05. The two clubs are separated by just 2 points in the table, and outgoing Frankfurt coach Oliver Glasner surely wants to stop the club’s 10-match winless streak prior to his departure. As we close in on the last few matchdays of the season, the race for the championship is more competitive than we’ve seen in years. That won’t be decided before Matchday 33 at the earliest. Bayern and Dortmund are now each guaranteed a top-4 finish and a place in next season’s Champions Leauge, and no other club can secure a top-4 place this weekend. As things stand now, the team that finishes 5th in the Bundesliga will qualify for the Europa League group stage, with 6th place earning a spot in the Europa Conference League play-offs. RB Leipzig, Union Berlin, and Freiburg have already guaranteed each at least a top-6 finish. Leipzig can guarantee finishing at least 5th if they avoid defeat against Werder Bremen and if Bayer Leverkusen don’t win at Stuttgart. Union will be certain of finishing 5th if they beat Freiburg and Leverkusen don’t win. Finally, Freiburg will be certain of finishing at least 5th if they beat Union and Leverkusen don’t win. At the other end of the table, of the 7 teams with the worst records, 3 can secure their safety this weekend: Bremen, Augsburg, and Hoffenheim. All 3 teams’ fates this weekend will depend, however, on what happens elsewhere in the league.

By Rich M

Matchday 31 got underway on Friday with road victories for 1. FC Köln and FC Schalke. Köln’s Rheinderby win over hosts Bayer 04 Leverkusen came thanks to goals from Davie Selke in the 14th and again in the 36th minute, while Leverkusen’s lone goal came in the 28th minute. Selke’s first goal was the 2000th goal that Leverkusen have conceded in the Bundesliga, and the brace was Selke’s first in 5 years: his last one came for Hertha Berlin against Köln on April 14, 2018. The win puts Köln 2 points ahead of nearby rival Gladbach in the table going into the remaining matches this weekend. The bigger upset on Friday was Schalke’s win over hosts 1. FSV Mainz 05, which netted 3 valuable points for Schalke in their battle against relegation. Among the match’s goals were a brace for Schalke’s Marius Bülter, who found the net in the 26th and 102nd minutes. Also finding the net were Schalke’s Tom Krauß in the 60th minute, Mainz’ Leandro Barreiro, who scored in the 53rd minute, and Mainz’s Aarón Martin, who scored in the 70th minute. You will not want to miss Saturday’s match between hosts Sport-Club Freiburg and visitors RB Leipzig, a crucial league contest between 2 clubs near the top of the table, and who are separated by just 2 points. The game is a re-match of sorts, as it was Freiburg who were eliminated by Leipzig in the DFB Pokal semi-final on Tuesday. The outcome of Saturday’s game is not only relevant to the top 4 places in the table, but also for next season’s UEFA Champions League. While Freiburg have lost 5 of their 6 meetings this season against the league’s top 5 clubs, Leipzig have lost 3 of 6 Bundesliga games in Freiburg. The relegation battle at the opposite end of the table also continues on Saturday, when Hertha Berlin host Stuttgart, in what is a must-win contest for both sides. While Hertha have managed to pick up wins against Gladbach and Augsburg, and a draw with Freiburg, they are coming off a 5:2 loss at Schalke, which extended their winless streak to 5, and the club is desperate to avoid what would be their first relegation since 2012. Stuttgart barely avoided a relegation playoff at the end of last season, and may still benefit from several matches against other clubs that are also in danger. The matchday will conclude with just one Sunday contest, when Dortmund host Wolfsburg. Dortmund are already assured of finishing no worse than 5th place, while Wolfsburg are still looking to secure their spot in European competition. Wolfsburg are coming off a 3:0 victory at home against Mainz, but are still trailing Leverkusen by just 2 points, with the final UEFA Europa League spot still up for grabs.